Large Earthquakes of San Andreas Fault

"I read the rocks," shared Dr. Scharer, "I look at the past to try to predict the future." Scharer explained what she meant by this. "We can look at ancient earthquakes, this is called paleoseismolog. This way we can see how large earthquakes have behaved in the past and how they would affect us if they happened in the present day. We also study small earthquakes to understand large ones." Living in earthquake prone Southern Califonia, we all wonder when "the big one" will hit. This and other questions were the subject at the Frequency of Large Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault talk at the San Bernardino County Museum (SBCM) as part of the museums guest lecture series. Dr. Kate Scharer of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) was the speaker of the night. Scharer explained that scientists can't predict exactly when earthquakes will happen. "What we can figure out are the odds in, say a 30-year time span," Dr. Scharer explained, citing several reasons for this. "There are too many faults in the Inland Empire. We can examine the areas around each fault and see how many earthquakes occur on each fault, and how big they are," she said. "There is a lot of work for me to do," she joked. Although this may not be enough to settle the fears of those who are in constant fear of "the big one", Dr. Scharer expressed the importance of knowing how regularly earthquakes may happen on the San Andreas Fault. "The statistics can help engineers when building a bridge or a pipeline. It's also what your earthquake insurance figures are based on." Dr. Scharer shared with the public her recent work in studying earthquakes. "The technology has really improved in the last 20 years, and we can get a better picture on the regularity of earthquakes occurring." She mention that work like hers has helped engineers develop building practices that resist earthquakes and is currently helping a team working on developing an early warning system which she says will likely be widely used in the next 5 years. This system would alert key facilities within 30 seconds of an earthquake reaching their area giving them a chance to turn off gas lines, or in Disneyland, stop the rides. Eric Scott, a curator at SBCM and professor of natural science at California State University San Bernardino (CSUSB) touched on the importance of the series which is held each month and is open to the public. "We bring professionals in to talk about their field of expertise. This subject is especially useful because unlike learning about dinosaurs, which is important as well, learning about earthquakes has a safety component that everyone can use, living in southern California," shared Scott. "It was a pretty cool lecture, and a little bit scary," shared Luis and Nanette Sicarios, two of Scott's students at CSUSB.